A question is gaining traction in Canada: will there be a referendum on Alberta’s independence this coming October? For decades, such a vote was associated solely with the French-speaking province of Quebec; however, secessionist sentiment is now emerging from another part of the country. This is none other than the wealthiest province in Canada. In 2025, Alberta’s per-capita GDP was around 72,000 Canadian dollars (approximately 53,000 US dollars). The source of this prosperity lies underground: Alberta has abundant oil reserves. Furthermore, conservative ideology is a defining characteristic among the majority of its residents.
The Stay Free Alberta organization delivered boxes containing signatures to the province’s Department of Elections in Edmonton on Monday, supporting a referendum on independence. According to the group, 301,620 signatures were submitted. Authorities had indicated that the minimum number required to consider such a referendum was 177,732. Mitch Sylvestre, leader of the group, stated that the number of signatures “is a clear signal” that the independence question “should be included on the October ballot.” Alberta Premier Danielle Smith will hold a series of consultations that month on a range of issues, including immigration and social services.
The provincial parliament passed a law in July lowering the threshold required to call a referendum. As a result, the petition now needs the signatures of 10% of the voters in the last general election. This change explains the number of signatures requested from independence activists. Danielle Smith has made it clear that she does not support the separatist movement, but that she will back the referendum if enough signatures are collected and verified. Smith is not the first political figure accused of trying to exploit the situation: several analysts have remarked that she is using the threat of independence to pressure Ottawa into making further concessions.
Friction with the federal government and secessionist sentiment in this part of the country are nothing new. Since the 1980s, a few voices have been suggesting forging a separate path, though they remained a small chorus. The arguments have changed little over time: separatists claim that the elites of Ontario and Quebec wield overwhelming power in decision-making, that federal authorities constantly interfere in provincial affairs, and, above all, that Alberta contributes too much to the national treasury.
The independence movement began to gain momentum in the last decade due to a combination of factors. Former prime minister Justin Trudeau’s rise to power in 2015 marked the beginning of a series of spats between Alberta and the federal government. Trudeau’s desire for stricter environmental regulations was one example. The Covid pandemic also played a role; one need only recall the truckers’ convoy — many from Alberta — that blocked downtown Ottawa in early 2022. This contributed to the perception of a central government that was supposedly restricting personal freedoms.
Likewise, a weakening of the federal conservatives led to more radical expressions among some of their members. This is also explained by events in the neighboring country. The birth and development of the MAGA movement, as well as Donald Trump’s first presidential victory, served as a kind of reference point for independence supporters. Trump’s second term, during which he consistently employed rhetoric against the Canadian state, gave the issue further momentum.
However, the talk is no longer just about inspiration, but also about suspicions of interference. The Financial Times reported in January that leaders of the Alberta independence movement held at least three meetings in 2025 with members of the U.S. administration. The Alberta Elections Department announced that it will review each of the signatures submitted by the separatist group, but this process has not yet begun due to a legal issue: a judge must rule on an appeal filed by Indigenous groups in the province, who argue that holding the referendum would violate rights obtained through various treaties.
In this context, the Department of Elections and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police launched an investigation after another secessionist group (called the Centurion Project) shared online, without authorization, a list containing the voter registration data of nearly three million residents of the province. If the electoral body ultimately validates the signatures, the petition would proceed to the Alberta Parliament. However, the federal government has already made statements on the possible scenarios. On Tuesday, Prime Minister Mark Carney stated: “There’s the rule of law. There’s the Clarity Act, which has been opined upon by the Supreme Court. Any referenda in any part of Canada need to be consistent with that.”
The prime minister was referring to the mechanism approved after the 1995 Quebec referendum, which stipulates that, should a province seek independence, the Canadian Parliament must determine what constitutes a clear question and what result would be sufficient to achieve separation. Carney added that he will continue working with all provinces on what he called “cooperative federalism.” In fact, the Canadian PM has made several outreach efforts with Alberta. The most significant one occurred in November, when he signed a memorandum of understanding with Premier Smith.
The document includes, among other points, certain exemptions from environmental regulations and the possibility of building a new oil pipeline to the Pacific coast. Carney has indicated his intention to make Canada an “energy superpower,” a goal in which Alberta plays a key role.
This past Friday, Carney received Danielle Smith in Ottawa. The premier of Alberta said that some details of the protocol are still pending, but she expects them to be resolved in the coming days. Smith added that both industry leaders and residents of her province “are starting to get a little impatient.”
A CBC News poll released in late April found that 67% of respondents would vote against a separatist referendum; 27% were in favor, and the remaining 6% were undecided. These figures are very similar to those of other polls conducted a year ago, when Carney’s Liberals won the federal election.
Mark Carney won the election by positioning himself as the most competent politician to confront the trade hostilities orchestrated from Washington. In addition to beginning to implement a detailed economic plan, the prime minister has called on Canadians to be more united than ever during these difficult times. Paradoxically, Carney is seeing the situation in Alberta begin to dominate the headlines. And, amidst all this, the idea of another independence referendum in Quebec is once again on the horizon. Next October, the French-speaking province will hold general elections. The Parti Québécois (PQ) is vying for first place in the polls with the Quebec Liberal Party. The PQ leader has indicated that he will organize another secession referendum should he win the election.
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