The Astros have been without Cristian Javier for the better part of three months due to a Grade 2 strain of his throwing shoulder. The right-hander will return from the injured list this week but will do so in an unfamiliar role.
Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that the Astros will activate Javier as a reliever. Although Espada left the door open for him to return to starting at some point, he’s not going to pitch in a swing role. The skipper said Javier will be a “typical reliever” for the time being.
Javier hasn’t come out of the bullpen since May 8, 2022. He pitched in a swing role for the ’21 season but locked himself into the rotation with excellent numbers that year and next. Houston signed him to a five-year, $64MM extension — then a record contract for a pitcher in his service class — on the heels of a 2.54 ERA showing in 2022.
That contract hasn’t gone as the team envisioned. Javier’s ERA climbed by two runs the following season, though he made 31 starts and struck out 159 batters. He underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the ’24 campaign, keeping him out until last August. Injuries have limited him to 18 big league appearances over the past two and a half seasons.
Javier is coming upon the end of his allotted 30-day minor league rehab window. He has pitched pretty well on that assignment, striking out 20 while allowing eight runs across 17 2/3 innings. His average fastball is sitting at 92.2 mph, about a half tick below his average before the shoulder injury. He built up to six innings and 85 pitches in his most recent start on Saturday.
The Astros apparently decided Javier’s stuff wasn’t sharp enough that it was worth disrupting their current rotation. They’re running a five-man group of Hunter Brown, Tatsuya Imai, Mike Burrows, Spencer Arrighetti and Peter Lambert. It’s not the most imposing staff beyond their ace, who himself just returned from a shoulder strain. Lambert has gone from offseason minor league signee to the team’s most valuable pitcher in the first half. The other three starters haven’t been great.
Burrows is the team leader in innings but has a 5.58 ERA, the third-highest mark among qualified starters. He’s tied for fifth in home runs allowed and has seen his strikeout rate drop by six percentage points relative to last season in Pittsburgh. Arrighetti opened the season in Triple-A, won the AL Pitcher of the Month award in May, then was rocked for 25 runs in as many innings in June.
Imai is averaging barely over four innings per start in his first MLB season. He reeled off two straight dominant outings to close June, combining for 21 strikeouts and one walk over 12 innings of three-run ball. Then came another clunker tonight, as Imai walked five of the 13 hitters he faced while failing to escape the second inning against the Twins. He gave up five runs in an eventual 8-3 loss and is back up to a 6.14 ERA on the season.
Houston’s bullpen struggled early but has been lights out recently. Only the Braves and Yankees had a lower bullpen ERA in June. Josh Hader, Steven Okert and Bryan King make for an excellent trio from the left side. They’re still lacking a reliable right-handed setup option with Bryan Abreu and Enyel De Los Santos scuffling. AJ Blubaugh has been on a roll and could get some shorter, higher-leverage assignments if the Astros use Javier in his long relief role.
Javier is playing on a $21MM salary and owed a matching amount for the 2027 season, the final year of his deal. That’s obviously not an ideal investment for a pitcher who can’t currently crack this Houston rotation. MLBTR’s payroll estimates (courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen) have the Astros’ luxury tax number at roughly $246MM, a couple million dollars above the base threshold. Javier’s backloaded contract comes with a more modest $12.8MM luxury tax hit for Houston but would recalculate at the $21MM annual value for an acquiring team if he’s traded.
The Astros are unlikely to find a taker for Javier’s entire salary given the recent injury history, but it’s possible another team willing to slot him into the rotation will inquire with the Houston front office about trade scenarios. They could agree to pay down a few million dollars — particularly if another team doesn’t have luxury tax concerns and is only worried about the salary — to create some flexibility against the CBT to address other needs (e.g. outfield or catcher).
Houston also plans to move right-hander Kai-Wei Teng back to the bullpen once he’s healthy, Espada said. Teng just landed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to June 28, with a right knee strain. Houston had optioned him to Triple-A over the weekend but evidently learned that he suffered an injury while on the MLB roster. He’ll therefore go on the injured list but isn’t expected to miss much time and will transition back to the bullpen after that.
Teng began the season in the bullpen. He built up as a starter in May and found some early success, but he was knocked around for nearly eight earned runs per nine in June. Teng spent most of last year pitching long relief in Triple-A for the Giants. His 64 big league innings this season are easily a career high.
