Can Any Expected Contenders Escape The Early Holes They’ve Dug?

It’s commonplace for at least one postseason hopeful to run into unexpected struggles early in the season. In the past, we’ve seen World Series aspirants and Wild Card hopefuls alike shoot themselves in the foot with sloppy April sequences that jeopardize their visions of October baseball. In some instances — the 2022 Phillies, the 2024 Mets and, most notably, the 2019 Nationals — teams are able to rally and make good on those playoff goals. For those 2019 Nats, they went so far as to win the whole thing. Nary a baseball fan in D.C. will ever forget the significance of the 19-31 record they faced roughly one-third of the way through the season.

More commonly, however, a disappointing April can prove to be a backbreaker. Fans need only look as far back as the 2025 Orioles to see a would-be contender whose awful early performance sunk their season before it ever had a chance to get going in earnest. The Orioles wrapped up April with a 12-18 record. By the midway mark of May, they were 15-27 — buried by nine and a half games in the American League East and with their postseason hopes all but dashed.

There have been plenty of oddities so far in the 2026 season. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are the first pair of teammates in MLB history with active streaks of homers in four or more consecutive games. (Oh, and Miguel Vargas has gone deep in three straight.) We’re about one-sixth of the way through the season and Mason Miller has fanned a superhuman 71% of his opponents through 11 1/3 innings. Tigers phenom Kevin McGonigle, who skipped Triple-A entirely and broke camp as a 21-year-old, ranks fourth in the majors in Baseball-Reference WAR or fifth in FanGraphs WAR, if you prefer.

But the strangest development of the 2026 doesn’t focus on any one player’s individual efforts. To see the most bizarre facet of the season’s first month requires a step back and a more macro look at the league as a whole.

Entering play Thursday, the four worst teams in baseball weren’t the Rockies, Nationals, Twins or any other widely expected cellar dweller. Instead, the bottom-four records belong to the Royals, Phillies, Mets and Red Sox — four clubs that entered the season with clear designs on contending. Fifth-worst are the White Sox — not terribly surprising — followed by the sixth-worst Astros. One game up in the standings are the Blue Jays and Mariners, last year’s ALCS opponents.

In any given year, seeing one or two of these clubs faceplant out of the gate wouldn’t be all that remarkable. Teams fall short of expectations all the time — often well short. But to see seven clubs who entered 2026 as win-now teams populate bottom-10 spots in the leaguewide standings with more than four weeks of the season in the books is fairly incredible.

Is the season lost for any of these clubs? Not quite yet, but the margin for error has all but eroded. For most of these clubs — especially the bottom four — it’s going to take something close to .600 ball the rest of the way to end up in contention. Let’s take a look at this year’s most disappointing clubs at the season’s one-month mark to see if there’s a chance of a rebound and, if not, who they might have to begrudgingly listen on at this year’s Aug. 3 trade deadline.