Rockies right-hander Chase Dollander fired seven scoreless innings to earn a win against the Mets on Sunday. The outing lowered his April ERA to a pristine 1.29. He’s piled up 34 strikeouts over 28 innings this month. Sunday’s outing was the first traditional start of the season for Dollander. He’d pitched exclusively out of the bullpen to begin the year, typically as a bulk reliever following an opener.
Dollander’s win over the Mets came at Citi Field. It was his fifth appearance on the road this season, compared to just two games at Coors Field. The young righty has been able to tame the hitter-friendly venue so far. Dollander allowed a run over 4 1/3 innings at home against the Phillies in his second outing of the season. He limited the Padres to a run across six innings early last week, piling up nine strikeouts. Colorado scored one run total in Dollander’s two home games, saddling him with the loss both times.
The Rockies took Dollander with the ninth overall pick in the 2023 draft. MLB Pipeline ranked him as the No. 2 prospect in the system in 2024, behind only infielder Adael Amador. Dollander struck out minor leaguers at a healthy 33.9% clip that season. The hard-throwing righty debuted with the Rockies last year. The results were brutal in basically every regard. Dollander struggled to miss bats, failed to find the strike zone consistently, and was frequently barreled. His 6.52 ERA was backed by an xFIP and SIERA near 5.00.
Dollander has taken a step forward in multiple areas in his second attempt as a big leaguer. He’s added a tick to his fastball, which was already extremely hard for a starter. Dollander’s four-seamer is sitting at 99 mph this year, ranking fourth among all pitchers. He’s more than doubled his sinker usage, contributing to a well-above-averge 51.9% groundball rate. Despite the increase in sinkers, Dollander has a strong 13.4% swinging-strike rate.
Keeping the ball on the ground while getting ample whiffs is a great recipe for success. Dollander’s 55.7% hard-hit rate stands out as a red flag, but it’s not turning into damage due to the type of batted balls he’s permitting. Only 8.9% of the contact against Dollander has been pulled in the air. Hard-hit balls on the ground and to the opposite way are generally going to lead to better outcomes for a pitcher than pulled air contact.
Colorado brought in Paul DePodesta to run baseball operations this offseason. He’s tasked with reviving a club that hasn’t won 70 games since 2021. The organization is currently in a seven-year playoff drought. DePodesta’s tenure is off to a solid start. The Rockies are just three games under .500 after sweeping the Mets over the weekend. The acquisitions of TJ Rumfield (trade) and Troy Johnston (waiver claim) have been additive, as has the signing of Tomoyuki Sugano. The Johnston addition came shortly before the DePodesta hire was announced, but it’s still part of what looks to have been a productive winter. DePodesta didn’t draft Dollander, of course, but his regime will be in charge of the righty’s development. The decision to initially use Dollander behind an opener, whether it came from manager Warren Schaeffer or the front office, proved fruitful.
Coors Field remains the most difficult place to pitch in the league. Per Statcast, it has a 112 overall Park Factor over the past three seasons, which ranks first by a significant margin. Chase Field is second on the list at 105. Colorado’s stadium ranks first in park effect for runs, OBP, hits, singles, and doubles, which makes sense given the spacious dimensions. The thin air in Denver also limits the effectiveness of breaking balls, forcing pitchers to reconsider their arsenals.
The Rockies have had the occasional pitcher break through with a productive season, despite the difficult home environment. Kyle Freeland finished eighth in ERA with a 2.85 mark in 2018. Jon Gray had a pair of sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the late 2010s. Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin formed a formidable duo in 2013, each posting sub-3.50 ERAs over 30+ starts. ERA is far from the only relevant pitching stat, but it’s a reliable marker for a successful season in a venue that boosts run production like no other.
Ubaldo Jimenez stands out as one of the only starters to have extended success in Colorado. He’s the name that gets whispered whenever a Rockies pitcher brushes up against relevance. The righty entered the rotation on a full-time basis in 2008. He racked up 16.8 WAR (per Baseball Reference) over the next three seasons. The walks were a bit high, but Jimenez limited damage with the help of a diverse arsenal. The 2010 campaign was his masterpiece. Jimenez posted 221 2/3 frames of a 2.88 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning. He earned an All-Star selection and finished third in NL Cy Young voting. Jimenez had better numbers on the road, but not by much. He held opponents to a .661 OPS and a .294 wOBA in 101 2/3 innings at Coors Field.
Jimenez was the rare pitcher to perform worse after leaving Colorado. He had one good year after getting traded to Cleveland, but didn’t find much success beyond his Rockies tenure. Jimenez did provide what would seem to be a viable blueprint for surviving at Coors Field: above-average velocity, a diverse arsenal, and a pitch mix that isn’t overly reliant on breaking balls. Dollander checks those boxes. He uses a changeup instead of a splitter, but the rest of the repertoire lines up with peak Jimenez. It’s around 60% four-seamer/sinker, 12% changeup, and then a smattering of breaking balls (slider/curveball/sweeper). Dollander has also improved his walk rate to 6.9%. Even in Jimenez’s stellar 2010, he issued free passes at a double-digit clip.
Dollander is just 28 appearances into his big-league career. It’s a seven-game sample of positive results. There’s plenty of season left for him to succumb to the Colorado conditions, which aren’t limited to home games. Rockies players also have to adjust to leaving the Denver altitude for road trips. But the formula is there for Dollander to conquer Coors Field.
Photo courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images
