Democrats see an opportunity in Texas to retake the Senate, but how realistic is that goal? NPR’s A Martinez speaks with Kyle Kondik {KAHN-dik} of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Let’s talk more about Democrats’ hopes for the Senate with Kyle Kondik. He’s managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a newsletter published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle, so until it changes, Texas is still a ruby-red state, but do Democrats have a good reason to be fired up about this Senate race?
KYLE KONDIK: Well, look, Ken Paxton, I think, is a weak nominee – and we know that in part because a lot of Republicans have been saying that themselves for months and months here, and a lot of Republican outside groups put a ton of money into – behind John Cornyn’s efforts to hold that seat. Obviously, he lost the nomination, so Paxton is the nominee. Texas is still a really difficult state for Democrats. You know, they have made inroads in, you know – kind of some of the places they’ve made inroads in across the country in kind of white suburban areas. Texas is a very heavily Latino state, and, you know, Democrats have lost ground with Latinos in recent years. But if you compare the improvement with white suburbanites with restoring margins among Latino voters, then you could sort of see the path to potential victory in Texas.
A MARTÍNEZ: I saw that James Talarico invited Cornyn’s voters to his camp, but where do you think those will go?
KONDIK: In a state like Texas, you know, I think a number of those folks will probably still stick with the Republicans. You know, one of the things that I think you might see across the country here, too, is that maybe you don’t have a ton of Trump voters crossing over to vote for Democratic Senate and U.S. House candidates in 2026, but maybe you’ll see a turnout imbalance in which some of those folks stay home because they’re – you know, maybe they’re upset about Trump, or they’re upset about the state of the country. Maybe they can’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. But again, you need a lot of these different things to kind of come together for – you know, for Democrats to flip a state like Texas.
A MARTÍNEZ: Is there any place in the country right now where Democrats have a clear path?
KONDIK: Well, look, I think North Carolina, in terms of, you know, being a pickup for Democrats, you know, they’re probably better than 50/50 in North Carolina, at this point, to flip that state. You know, Maine, that’s a blue state. But you’ve got, you know, an interesting Democratic nominee in Graham Platner, who’s more of an outsider, against Susan Collins. But Platner has been leading in the polls in that state, although polls didn’t really do that great in Maine in 2020, the last time Susan Collins was on the ballot. But then you start to look at some of these, you know, redder states, states that voted for Trump by double digits in 2024. Democrats need to win, you know, basically all the other competitive races, and then also flip at least two states that Trump won by double digits. So that’s why we’re talking about Ohio, Alaska, Iowa, Texas, maybe a few other places as sort of the – really the keys to flipping the Senate…
A MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
KONDIK: …Besides a North Carolina and a Maine.
A MARTÍNEZ: So what does the math, or maybe even the history, say about the chances of that happening?
KONDIK: Well, I – you know, if you go back 20 years when the Democrats flipped the Senate in 2006, you know, they were able to win a number of states and flip a number of states that George W. Bush had won in the 2004 election. Now, the flip side of that is that back then, Democrats still – back then, they held a lot of Senate seats in what you’d consider to be red states. You know, the Senate map wasn’t quite as sorted out by presidential partisanship back then as it is now. And so, you know, the Democrats currently don’t even hold any double-digit Trump districts in the U.S. House, and they also don’t in the U.S. Senate. Now, again, 2026 looks like it’s going to be a really good political environment for Democrats. And so maybe that allows them to – you know, to break through again in these sort of red districts and red states.
A MARTÍNEZ: What do you think, or what have you been hearing about what the general Republican game plan will be to defend against Democrats trying to flip Senate seats?
KONDIK: Well, I think, particularly in these red states that we’re talking about, they – those candidates are not going to be shy about tying themselves to Trump because Republicans are just concerned about Trump voter turnout. And you know, you think about in a midterm, the common strategy is to – maybe to run away from your – the – for the presidential party to kind of run away from the president because they want to, you know – particularly if the president is unpopular – they don’t want to be tied to that person. But I think in sort of red – particularly in red states, Republicans are just going to want to tie themselves to Trump and try to get Trump voters to show up to back their candidates. But again, the danger is, is Trump in such a bad position that he’s a liability, even in some of these places that he won by double digits in 2024?
A MARTÍNEZ: And I’ve heard the president already say that he’s not really concerned about the midterms when it comes to how he’s planning things out for the rest of the year. So, I mean, to tie yourself to that, is that going to be a winning strategy?
KONDIK: Well, and also, you know, Trump has had all of this success in primaries, you know, basically beating – you know, beating two incumbent senators in primaries and, you know, runoffs this month – Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn. But there’s so much focus on Trump’s strength within the Republican Party that maybe he and others are kind of ignoring his weakness outside of a Republican primary electorate.
A MARTÍNEZ: All right. Kyle Kondik is managing editor of the politics newsletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics. Kyle, thanks.
KONDIK: Thank you.
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