The Padres are 36 games into their season. Outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. is still searching for his first home run. The 27-year-old has yet to leave the yard despite hitting the ball harder than just about everyone. Tatis was slugging .305 heading into Wednesday, nearly 200 points below his career mark. He has six extra-base hits in 148 plate appearances.
Tatis isn’t going to get shut out in the home run column all season. He’s recorded 12 barrels, which should’ve translated to around a half-dozen homers, based on the rate those batted-ball events tend to leave the yard. Luis Rengifo has the second-most barrels without a home run at six. Last season, Jose Tena had the most barrels without a home run, also with six. If he continues to barrel the ball at a 12.5% clip, Tatis will get on the board before long.
Since his 42-homer season in 2021, Tatis has been more of a mid-20s guy in the power department. He has exactly 25 dingers in his two full campaigns during that stretch. Injuries and an 80-game PED suspension sidelined Tatis for all of 2022. A stress fracture in his leg cost him two months in 2024, but he still hit 21 home runs in 102 games. Even as Tatis’ combination of power and speed has trended toward the latter, he’s still been an extremely productive offensive force. The outfielder has had a wRC+ above 130 in each of the past two seasons.
Tatis has slashed .250/.320/.305 through 34 games. He’s been 20% worse than league average at the plate by wRC+. And that’s with a .337 BABIP, his highest since his rookie season. So, what’s gone wrong for the superstar?
Suboptimal directional contact
The easiest way to turn loud contact into a parade of singles is to use the whole field. Tatis had been almost exactly league average in terms of directional contact for his career. His pulled, up the middle, and opposite field contact rates have seldom skewed more than 5% off of the league norm. Tatis has upended that trend this season. He’s pulling the ball just 20.8% of the time (per Statcast), well below the league average of 37.4% and nowhere near his career mark of 37.7%. Tatis is going up the middle at a massive 46.9% clip, nearly 10% higher than league average. He’s using the opposite field on 32.3% of his batted balls, a nearly 7% jump from his previous career high (25.4% in 2024).
Using the whole field isn’t inherently bad, particularly when you rank in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate. Tatis has a solid .280 expected batting average, which ranks in the 82nd percentile. It’s just not the ideal path toward turning hard hits into damage.
Decline in fly balls
Tatis isn’t just spraying the ball more than ever. He’s also hitting it on the ground at a career-high 52.1% rate. Tatis has typically leaned slightly higher than average on grounders, but his lifetime mark was only a couple of percentage points above the league average of 44.2%. Tatis still provided plenty of power with a 49.0% groundball rate in 2025, which was a career-high at the time. He posted a sub-20% line drive rate for the first time as a big leaguer, but his fly ball rate remained intact last season.
The jump in groundballs has come at the expense of fly balls this year. Tatis’ line drive rate is up to 28.1%, the best of his career. He’s trimmed his pop-up rate to 3.1%. But Tatis is lifting the ball at just a 16.7% clip, a 9% drop from his career average, and well below the leaguewide mark of 24.1%. He’s also pulling the ball in the air at a career-low 5.2% rate. It’s the eighth-lowest mark among qualified hitters. The bottom 10 in pulled air rate is littered with no-power speedsters like Victor Scott II, Chandler Simpson, Jake Mangum, and Luisangel Acuna. It’s not the kind of group you want to be in, particularly as a high-impact offensive contributor.
Bump in strikeouts
Tatis entered the league with a swing-and-miss issue. He had a strikeout rate near 30% with a concerning 67.1% contact rate as a rookie. Even during the massive 2021 season, when he finished third in NL MVP voting, Tatis struck out at a bloated 28.0% rate. He had the fifth-lowest contact rate among qualified hitters. While the power has ticked down in recent seasons, Tatis has also made more contact. He was in the low-20s for strikeout rate in 2023 and 2024. The 2025 campaign saw him punch out at just a 18.7% clip.
The strikeout rate has jumped back up to 25.0% in 2026. Tatis’ called strike + swinging strike rate is at 26.9%, his highest since 2021. His whiff rate is above 30% for the first time in three seasons. These numbers are in line with the first three seasons of Tatis’ career, but he was a premier power bat in those years.
Now what?
The Padres handed Tatis a 14-year, $340MM extension heading into the 2021 season. It gets more expensive the longer it goes. Tatis will be making $36MM a year from 2029 through 2032. He’s generally been worth the money up to this point, lost 2022 season aside. Tatis has been a 5+ WAR player (per Baseball Reference) in 2021, 2023, and 2025. He has two Gold Gloves for his splendid work in right field, and he’s chipped in some additional defensive value by playing second base this year. It’d be nice if he hit more like a corner outfielder than a second baseman.
Tatis appears to be himself from a physical perspective. His bat speed remains elite at 74.6 mph, and his fast swing rate is higher than ever (51.1%). His stance is a bit more closed, and he’s standing slightly further back from the plate, but he hasn’t made any massive changes with his setup. Tatis’ intercept point is much closer to the plate than normal, which explains the change in contact direction. His sprint speed is right in line with the past couple of years. He’s not broken. He’s just been the worst parts of his previous selves in 2026.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images
