WASHINGTON, D.C. — Few brands symbolize American freedom and rebellion quite like Harley-Davidson.
The 123-year-old company is headquartered in Milwaukee and operates its largest U.S. manufacturing plant in York, Pennsylvania. Amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariff campaign — aimed at reshoring production to American shores — Harley-Davidson announced in June that it would return production of some products from Thailand to U.S. facilities.
That announcement came before the U.S. administration announced the Section 301 and Section 338 tariffs, and before Ottawa unveiled its retaliation against those measures and earlier Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum. If Canada implements duties on September 8, as planned, it would introduce a 50 per cent tariff on U.S.-origin motorcycle imports to Canada larger than 800cc with internal-combustion engines.
Ottawa said its list of tariffs was crafted to protect the “domestic market share for Canadian companies,” rather than to target politically sensitive products in U.S. battleground states ahead of November’s midterms, but affecting Harley motorcycles could have political implications in at least one swing district: Pennsylvania’s 10th, a highly competitive congressional seat.
While the Canadian tariff does not name Harley-Davidson, it is expected to cover many Harley models made in the United States. So while the company is being held up as evidence that Trump’s tariff strategy can bring manufacturing back to the United States, Canada’s 50 per cent tariff on motorcycles could test whether reshored factories can thrive when a major trading partner makes its products more expensive.
Canada accounted for roughly 5 per cent of Harley-Davidson’s global retail motorcycle sales last year, with 6,434 motorcycles sold north of the border. That means the tariff’s direct effect on the company may be limited — but its political symbolism could be larger.
“If production is reshored to the United States, then what form does it get reshored?” asked Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, a trade policy analyst at the Cato Institute. “How many jobs are you actually creating? What kinds of jobs are you creating?”
“If there is to an extent a certain reliance on Canadian parts … the fact that this product is tariffed and the fact that some inputs could be tariffed … could affect the prospect of reshoring it more extensively and creating jobs,” he said.
Harley said the move would return machining, powertrain assembly, painting and final assembly for its Revolution Max platform to U.S. facilities serving the North American market. Production is expected to begin as early as next year, and the company says the move will support “dozens of additional American manufacturing and union jobs.” It has not said how many net new jobs will be created.
“If you have production in a country where there’s very little U.S. value added, and then that production moves to the U.S., that will overall be a net gain for manufacturing in the U.S. for that specific product category,” said Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University.
“But it may not be a net gain for overall jobs in the U.S. if that means less demand for that broader product, and therefore less employment in the distribution side,” he added.
“A lot of the manufacturing jobs that were lost were not necessarily because of offshoring to other countries, but because of technological changes,” Obregon said, noting that the advent of advanced robotics could mean that reshoring production means fewer jobs.
A 50 per cent tariff would likely reduce Harley-Davidson exports to Canada, Miller said. Exporters may lower their prices slightly, but not enough to offset the duty, meaning the total landed cost would still rise substantially, and import volumes would likely fall.
But Gary Hufbauer, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said iconic brands such as Harley-Davidson are easy symbolic targets for foreign retaliation because they can absorb more of the tariff through their profit margins without immediately becoming unprofitable.
“Prices charged for iconic brands tend to have a large component of ‘economic rent,’” he said. “For this reason, the sellers can absorb a good part of the tariff and still make a decent profit.”
This means Canada can impose a high penalty for all to see, while Harley absorbs some of the tariff through its margins rather than passing along the full cost to buyers.
Miller does not expect the tariff’s effects to influence major business decisions — including production changes or layoffs — until early next year. The first effects are more likely to be commercial: companies accepting lower margins, reducing hours or postponing investments, even as the impact shows up quickly in balance sheets and export data.
The question is whether those effects will matter before the midterms.
In York, Pennsylvania, where Harley has its largest U.S. manufacturing plant, the House race is considered a toss-up between incumbent pro-tariff Republican Scott Perry and Democratic challenger Janelle Stelson.
“This is one of Democrats’ best pickup opportunities compared to other districts that are similar at the partisan level,” said Erin Covey, head of The Cook Political Report’s coverage of the U.S. House of Representatives.
“Perry is, by far, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the country,” she added, noting that he “has been in lockstep with [the president]” on tariff policy.
Wisconsin presents a different political test. Harley-Davidson is headquartered in Milwaukee, but the company’s home district, the 6th Congressional District, is considered solidly Republican. Incumbent Glenn Grothman is also aided by a divided opposition, with independent candidate Mike Thurow and Democrat Brad Smith competing for votes that might otherwise consolidate behind a single challenger on the left.
But Harley-Davidson may still be useful to both parties as a symbol of the competing arguments over Trump’s trade policy .
“If people who are in the workforce make this link between tariffs and affordability … it could potentially impact their vote,” Obregon said.
And Harley-Davidson is a big brand capable of grabbing voters’ attention.
“Harley-Davidson is such an iconic American brand. It’s something that voters can maybe connect to more easily than if this were happening with a different company,” said Covey.
But Covey cautioned that Harley is unlikely to decide any race on its own. “I am not sure that in and of itself it is going to be a major issue in any of these races,” she said.
Miller also said the direct economic effects of the tariffs are unlikely to determine the midterms. The larger political effect, he said, may come from voters’ broader concerns about affordability and Trump’s decision to pick a fight with Canada.
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