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Months into the primaries, the question on everyone’s mind is whether Democrats can flip the Senate. Many of the battlegrounds are set and a few are yet to be decided in primaries but the answer remains murky.
The math is simple: with President Trump in the White House and a Republican vice president holding the tie-breaking vote, Democrats need to flip four seats to take control. Republicans say they’ll hold the majority, though they admit it could be narrow.
Given history and a less than favorable political environment for Republicans, the party is bracing for Democrats to pick up between one and three seats.
The fact remains that neither party has easily won Senate races in states that voted for the other party’s presidential candidate. Still, Trump’s low approval rating and the War with Iran combined with economic frustration across the country could change where things stand.
Some trends in the Democratic Senate primaries include the rise of socialist candidates as well as younger, outsider candidates. Republicans say the former will benefit them because the Republican electorate which wants “centrist, commonsense policies” will “vehemently” reject candidates who come with “massive tax burdens.”
Here’s the landscape, ranked from most to least likely to flip. Tier 1 is most likely, Tier 2 is competitive but less so, and so on. Race ratings (Toss-Up, Lean, etc.) come from the Cook Political Report and analysis draws on conversations with political operatives working on these campaigns.
Tier 1 – Most likely to flip: North Carolina
NORTH CAROLINA (R-Open) LEAN D:
The Tar Heel state offers Democrats the best chance at a pickup this November. The retirement of Republican Sen. Thom Tillis has set an open contest between former Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat who won statewide twice even as Trump carried North Carolina, and Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman and a close Trump ally. Cooper has widespread name recognition and has consistently led Whatley in the polls as well as with fundraising. Republicans, though, are confident about Whatley’s fundraising skills in an expensive race and point out voter registration numbers favor Republicans. Cooper would be looking to break a drought — Democrats last won a Senate race in the state nearly two decades ago, in 2008.
Tier 2 – The Toss-Ups: Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio
ALASKA (R-Sullivan) TOSS UP:
The entry of one Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher, who shares a name with Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan has tipped Alaska, moving it from a Lean Republican seat to a toss-up. Under Alaska’s election system, all candidates compete in a single open primary, and the top four finishers advance to a general election decided by ranked-choice voting. This means both Sullivans could appear on the November ballot, confusing voters. Sen. Sullivan has failed to have his fellow Dan Sullivan removed from the ballot. Democrats believe former Rep. Mary Peltola, the first Alaska Native to join Congress in 2022, can win by hammering affordability. Republicans are betting that the state’s deep red lean will reassert itself — buoyed by the fact that Alaskans rejected Peltola in the 2024 House race. Primary: Aug. 18.
MAINE (R-Collins) TOSS-UP:
Maine’s Democratic candidate, Graham Platner, the young oyster farmer and combat veteran, suspended his campaign after facing a rape allegations he denies. The Maine Democratic Party replaced him with Troy Jackson, the former state Senate President and a fifth-generation logger from northern Maine. He won his party’s approval at a nominating convention on Saturday. Jackson is running on an economic populist message and supporting policies like Medicare for All. He will face Republican Sen. Susan Collins who has historic success getting votes from the bluest parts of the state. At the same time, she is the only Republican senator running in a state Trump lost in 2024. Republicans say Maine voters have confidence in Collins’ character and past record. A path to the Senate without Maine is a very narrow one for Democrats.
MICHIGAN (D-Open) TOSS-UP:
The now-familiar establishment vs progressive face-off — centrist Rep. Haley Stevens vs Detroit health official Abdul El-Sayed — sharpened after state Sen. Mallory McMorrow dropped out in June. To succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, El-Sayed is promising Medicare for All and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He has endorsements from other progressive Democrats and the support of leftist Twitch streamer Hasan Piker. Stevens has Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s blessings, has outspent El-Sayed on the airwaves by at least 8 times, according to AdImpact, and will continue to do so. The winner will face expected Republican nominee Mike Rogers, who narrowly lost the state’s 2024 Senate race to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin. Republicans are relishing the long Democratic brawl, while Democrats feel confident about holding on to Michigan. Primary: Aug. 4
OHIO (R-Husted) TOSS-UP:
Democrats got the candidate they wanted in Ohio: former Sen. Sherrod Brown, back for a rematch. He has built a hefty war chest against incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat Vice President Vance vacated, and is now seeking a full term. Democrats feel good about Brown’s campaign, which focuses on kitchen table economic issues. Republicans point out that voters rejected Brown when he was up against Republican Bernie Moreno in 2024 and they will have the same concerns this election. Brown’s narrow loss, in a state that voted for Trump in the last three presidential elections and an environment where voters were upset by former Vice President Kamala Harris’ run, may not stand against him the way Republicans think.
Tier 3 – A(nother) potential progressive win: Minnesota
MINNESOTA (D-Open) LIKELY D:
Democrats aren’t losing sleep over holding this seat, but the primary has become one more example in the party’s internal struggle. Progressive Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan is racing in the primary against centrist Rep. Angie Craig. Flanagan won the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party endorsement after Craig declined to seek it. While Craig has been raising more money, Flanagan is leading the polls. Among the Republican nominees, one with the backing of national party leaders is former NFL sportscaster Michele Tafoya. No Republican has won statewide office in Minnesota since 2006. Primary: Aug. 11.
Tier 4 — The Reaches: Georgia, New Hampshire, Iowa
GEORGIA (D-Ossoff) LEAN D:
Incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff continues to be the favorite for this race in a purple swing state — despite being the only Democratic senator defending a state Trump won in 2024. Republican Rep. Mike Collins, who got a last-minute endorsement from the president before his run-off, is a big supporter of Trump’s immigration policies and is widely regarded as much less moderate than Derek Dooley, the former football coach he was running against. Ossoff has been focused on the November election while Collins was battling his primary, but Republicans say the math favors Collins: A midterm electorate in Georgia naturally leans their way, while Ossoff needs every Democratic base voter to show up.
NEW HAMPSHIRE (D-Open) LEAN D:
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen’s retirement has opened a seat Democrats have held for nearly two decades, in a state with a famously independent streak. Both parties’ likely nominees are already clear. While the Democrats are putting their weight behind Rep. Chris Pappas, the Republicans have consolidated behind John Sununu, a former senator and congressman whose family name is a political institution in the state. But the shape of the race between these two is yet to emerge. Republicans say they have the upper hand because the majority of registered voters in New Hampshire are independents, followed by Republicans. Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte, who is running for reelection, is also offering support for Sununu. Their problem is the president: 60% of New Hampshire residents disapprove of Trump, according to a University of New Hampshire survey. Primary: Sept. 8.
IOWA (R-Open) LEAN R:
Iowa is on this list because Republican Sen. Joni Ernst’s retirement, tariffs battering the state’s soybean farmers and the economic fallout of the Iran war have put it in play. Democratic candidate, state Rep. Josh Turek, and Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson are both vying to succeed Ernst. Turek’s win would be big — the state lawmaker who won two gold medals for wheelchair basketball at the Paralympics, would be the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Iowa since 2008. Iowa has moved decisively toward Republicans after backing former President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. Both Turek and Hinson, a former news anchor, are campaigning on issues around the agriculture industry and farmers, but so far Hinson is the early favorite.
Tier 5 – The real maybe: Texas
TEXAS (R-Cornyn) LEAN R:
Attorney General Ken Paxton’s win over Sen. John Cornyn has set the stage for an expensive match with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico. Paxton, who was endorsed by Trump just days before the May runoff, won despite scandals including his wife filing for divorce on “biblical grounds,” and a now-settled felony indictment for securities fraud. Democrats see in Talarico what they’ve lacked in Texas for a generation: an affordability and anti-corruption message, big crowds, national spotlight and the ability to fundraise. The primary race on May 26 has been the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history and combined the candidates spent over $100 million. On the other hand, Republicans do not consider Texas as a battleground and feel confident it will stay red based on the belief that Talarico’s ideals are too far left for Texas. Trump has carried Texas every time he’s been on the ballot and no Democrat has won statewide since the 1990s.
