The 51-53 Padres took the first game of a pivotal series against a Wild Card competitor in Miami this evening. It’s a matchup of two spiraling clubs trying to remain in the playoff picture. The Padres have been one of the worst teams in the league for two months, while Miami is now riding a ten-game losing streak that has dropped them a few games off the Wild Card pace.
Every game is pivotal this time of year for the bubble teams, whose front offices are weighing whether to prioritize upgrades for the current season or looking toward the future. The Padres are in a particularly interesting spot, as they’re in desperate need of starting pitching while rostering a couple marquee trade chips — none bigger than the sport’s best reliever, Mason Miller.
San Diego is four games back in the Wild Card race. Their recent play would seemingly point toward selling, but reports from Dennis Lin of The Athletic and Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune indicate the front office still hopes to be in position to add. A lot could depend on the next three series, all of which are winnable, so this could go right up to deadline day.
After Miami, the Padres return home for six games against the Rockies (two) and Giants (four) up to the August 3 deadline. They’ve started the second half just 3-5, but a 5-3 showing over the next three series would pull them back to .500 and potentially back to within two or three games in the Wild Card race.
The Padres could try to walk the line by shopping a reliever or two while targeting controllable MLB talent in return. Miller is understandably going to get most of the headlines, but lefty Adrian Morejon would draw ample attention in his own right. He’s an impending free agent, so he’s not going to fetch the multiple top prospects it’d take to get them to move Miller, but Morejon would easily be the best rental reliever available.
Lin writes that the Padres may be more willing to move Morejon than Miller once the deadline arrives. That could be in play even if the Padres don’t truly sell, as they could try to flip him directly for a starter or cash Morejon in for prospects while trading elsewhere in the system for pitching.
San Diego’s farm system is arguably the thinnest in MLB. Double-A catcher Ethan Salas is their only top prospect. That doesn’t mean they can’t trade from the farm, as teams will have varying levels of interest in mid-tier talents like Kruz Schoolcraft, Kash Mayfield and Ty Harvey. They’ll have an uphill battle in beating the field for any top trade chips, though, especially if Salas is off the table as their catcher of the future. That’s particularly true for a controllable starting pitcher, which the Padres could certainly use but typically comes at a premium cost on the trade market.
Morejon would be a candidate for a $23MM qualifying offer if the Padres hold him through season’s end. They’re above the luxury tax line and would therefore only recoup a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he declines a QO and signs elsewhere. They’d certainly do better than that if he’s traded.
The 27-year-old southpaw is the hardest-throwing lefty in the game. Morejon misses bats, gets ground-balls at an elite rate, and is typically around the strike zone. His 3.26 ERA looks more good than exceptional, but that’s weighed down by a rocky one-week stretch in early April. Morejon posted a sub-3.00 ERA in 2024 and ’25. He has a low-2.00s mark since the middle of April. If he’s not quite in the Aroldis Chapman or Josh Hader tier, he’s not too far below them among the best lefty relievers.
San Diego’s bullpen has been worked heavily all year. They’ve taken a few injury hits (e.g. Jeremiah Estrada, Jason Adam, and David Morgan) and been exposed in the middle innings more recently. A back-end trio of Miller, Morejon and talented rookie Bradgley Rodriguez is still very difficult to beat.
Morejon is San Diego’s only qualifying offer candidate. Michael King can opt out after the season but is ineligible for the QO after receiving one last year. Their other rentals are mostly depth types, though the Padres would surely get interest in first baseman Ty France if they were to sell. France is playing Gold Glove caliber defense for a second straight year while having a resurgent offensive season, hitting .279/.333/.550 with 16 homers.
