The Mexican economy recovered in April after contracting 0.6% in the first quarter of the year compared to the final three months of 2025.
The national statistics agency INEGI reported on Tuesday that the economy grew 2.2% in annual terms in April and 1.2% compared to the previous month.
The month-over-month growth rate was the highest for any month since March 2021, when the economy expanded 1.6% compared to the previous month. The annual growth rate in April was well above the 0.4% year-over-year expansion in the first quarter of 2026.
INEGI’s data shows that construction activity was a key driver of economic growth in April. The construction sector grew 10.2% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, and 7.6% compared to March.
Gabriela Siller, director of economic analysis at Banco Base, wrote on X that it is believed that the month-over-month growth of the construction sector was driven by projects related to the FIFA men’s World Cup, which Mexico is currently co-hosting with the United States and Canada.
Alejandro Saldaña, chief economist with the Ve por más (BX+) financial group, told El Financiero TV that INEGI’s economic data for April “exceeded analysts’ expectations.”
Economic growth by sector
INEGI’s data shows that the primary sector, which includes agriculture, forestry and fishing, grew 4.7% annually in April. However, the sector contracted 0.4% compared to March.
The secondary sector — which includes manufacturing, construction and mining as well as the electricity, water, and gas industries — grew 1.8% in annual terms in April and 2.1% compared to March.
Within the secondary sector, manufacturing activity declined 0.3% in April compared to a year earlier, but increased 1.2% compared to March. Mexico’s export revenue — which is principally derived from the shipment abroad of manufactured goods — has increased despite the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs on various Mexican products. However, U.S. duties on light, medium and heavy vehicles have hindered the growth of the Mexican automotive industry.
INEGI’s data also shows that the mining sector grew 3.4% annually in April, but contracted 0.7% compared to March.
Finally, the tertiary or services sector — Mexico’s largest economic sector — grew 2.4% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, and 0.7% compared to March. Within the services sector, the wholesale sector grew 10.1% in April in annual terms, while the industry encompassing health and social assistance services expanded 3.8% compared to a year earlier.
A few sub-sectors of the tertiary industry contracted in annual terms in April, including that encompassing temporary accommodation and food and beverage preparation, which shrank 2%.
The outlook for the remainder of 2026
While the economic data for April is good news, INEGI published preliminary data last week that estimated 0.0% month-over-month growth in May and an annual expansion of 1.1% in the same month. Those figures represent a significant slowdown compared to April. However, they could be revised. Indeed, INEGI’s preliminary data for April estimated annual growth of just 0.3%, a figure that was revised upward to 2.2% in the final data.
Mexico’s co-hosting of the World Cup this month through early July should give a boost to the Mexican economy, although hotel occupancy levels weren’t as high as hoped early in the tournament.
Regarding the second half of 2026, current signs point to a continued improvement in economic activity, according to Rodolfo Ostolaza, deputy director of economic studies at Banamex.
“We continue to expect that the economy will maintain a trajectory of gradual recovery during the rest of the year,” he said.
Ostolaza predicted that the economy would be “supported by a slight recovery of public and private investment” in the second half of 2026 as well as “an improvement in formal employment,” strong exports and a less restrictive monetary policy.
The Mexican Finance Ministry is forecasting economic growth in the range of 1.8%-2.8% this year, but private sector analysts are generally less optimistic. Among analysts from 35 banks, brokerages and research organizations recently surveyed by Citi, the median GDP growth projection for Mexico in 2026 is 1.1%, with the range of estimates going from 0.5% to 1.5%.
With reports from El Economista and El Financiero
