MLB Best Bets Today: Brewers and Mariners Lead Friday Card

We’ve made it through another week and scarily the halfway point of the MLB season is nearly upon us.

Let’s try to head to the beach with a couple winning MLB Picks.

Season Record 37-34-1, +0.26 Units

Brewers at Braves

Brewers F5 -0.5 (-125 Caesars)

Nobody beats The Miz!….ok you had to be there.

But yes, The Miz, Jacob Misiorowski, travels to Atlanta to take on Martin Perez and the Braves. Until yesterday’s rainout, it set up as this year’s overwhelming NL Cy Young favorite vs. the 2024 winner and future HOFer. But Sale got pushed back unfortunately.

The Miz as you probably know has looked downright insane lately, capped off with a complete game 15 K, 1 hit masterpiece vs. the Phillies last time out. He flashed 104 MPH hit and faced the minimum 27 batters with a Game Score of 107 that best I can tell is the highest ever. On the year he has a 1.34 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with a crazy 39.8% K%. Control was his big question mark going into the season, but his 6.7% BB% is actually good.

Normally the price on Miz games is so tilted it’s hard to come up with a play. But it’s at least reasonable here as he’s on the road against a good team. And Perez has pitched very well this year, sporting a 2.90 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. But the Brewers are scorching hot vs. lefties with a 134 wRC+ vs. southpaws over the past month. Meanwhile it’s not the full Braves as Ronald Acuna Jr. is back on the IL and Michael Harris II is in and out of the lineup lately. Let’s take the Miz and Brewers here.

Red Sox at Mariners

Mariners F5 -0.5 (-105 BetMGM)

We’ve got a bit of a banged up Mariners team here hosting the reeling Red Sox. Randy Arozerena is on the IL at least until next week, while Julio Rodriguez missed yesterday’s game. On the flip side, Cal Raleigh has returned, as has JP Crawford.

It’s another top notch pitching matchup with Ranger Suarez (3.21 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 17.1% K-BB%) goes up against Bryce Miller (1.54 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 24.8% K-BB%). Ostensibly facing a lefty should pose big trouble for the Mariners as they’re not the deepest lineup in the league to begin with and it takes too good lefty platoon bats out of the lineup in Dominic Canzone and Luke Raley. In their place we get Rob Refsnyder who’s slashing a brutal .143/.214/.242 on the year and….one of Mitch Garver (.200/.327/.322) or the recently called up Connor Joe.

So take the Red Sox at plus money here, right? Well, as Lee Corso would say, “not so fast my friend!”

The Mariners still have the better pitcher, and they’re also not hitting that badly vs. lefties lastly as they have a 107 wRC+ vs. southpaws over the past month. Meanwhile Boston is in a bunch of spots where they have had just brutal results in 2026. On the F5 run line they are 9-12 with a -21.3% ROI as underdogs as well as 12-22 with a -32.6% ROI on the road and an impossibly bad 15-38 with a -45.3% ROI vs. righty starters. Let’s roll with the Mariners here.