MLB Mailbag: Devers, Nationals, DFA Carousels, Guardians, Red Sox

I’m pinch-hitting for MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes on this week’s MLB Mailbag! In this edition, we’ll get into Rafael Devers‘ contract and trade value (or lack thereof), the Nationals’ unexpectedly strong performance and how it could shape their deadline, the revolving door for “41st men” on 40-man rosters (e.g. Atlanta’s Carlos Carrasco), the Guardians’ deadline needs, the Red Sox’ search for a right-handed bat and more.

Onto the questions…

Peter asks…

With Rafael Devers hitting again (and his defense at first base very good) how would you rate his value on the open market taking into account his remaining contract? What level of return would you expect the Giants might get for him and what teams do you think would be most interested in him? Would the Giants have to pay down any of his remaining contract?

Devers is indeed hitting better after an awful start to the season. Following a disastrous .207/.248/.289 slash and 31% strikeout rate through the end of April (129 plate appearances), he’s rebounded with a .257/.321/.500 line over his 165 most recent trips to the plate. It’s an encouraging turnaround, but there are some red flags worth mentioning.

First and foremost, that 31% strikeout rate that dogged Devers through his dreadful early slump hasn’t abated. Over this stretch of 165 plate appearances, he’s fanned at a 30.9% clip — effectively the exact same rate. The biggest differences have been a modest bump in power (six homers in this stretch) and a huge spike in Devers’ batting average on balls in play. His BABIP in that slump was a roughly league-average .288. During this turnaround, he’s at .344.

That doesn’t all come down to luck. Devers’ exit velocity has jumped from an average of 89.8 mph during that cold snap to a huge 93.4 mph in his hot streak. His hard-hit rate has soared from a solid 41.5% to an elite 55.6%. Devers is making better contact, so it only stands to reason that more of his balls in play should be landing for hits.

Be that as it may, however, Devers still isn’t walking much. His contact rate on pitches within the strike zone, even during his recent surge, is 75% — well shy of the league-average 85.9%. And while Devers has been good during this span, he hasn’t been his peak self. By measure of wRC+, Devers has been about 27% better than average since early May. That’s very good, but it’s not close to his best output. Back in 2021-22, for instance, Devers crushed 65 homers in 297 games and did so with rate stats that placed him about 36% better than average: .287/.355/.530. His strikeout rate over those two years was 20.1%. His contact rate on balls in the zone was still below average but was five percentage points higher than during this recent revival.

All of that is to say, Devers has been performing like an above-average but flawed hitter since the beginning of May. That’s a nice development after he looked lost to begin the season — and after he dealt with a disk injury in his lower back last summer — but does it restore any semblance of trade value? I don’t believe so.