The Major League Baseball postseason picture is taking its final form. With just over a month of games remaining in the regular-season, some of the pretenders are dropping out.
Since Aug. 1, nobody’s playoff hopes have dwindled more than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They have a 4.8% chance to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs.
The Pirates weren’t in a great position leaving July, but they still had a 27.6% chance to reach the postseason for the first time since 2015. Injuries to sluggers rookie Konnor Griffin and Ryan O’Hearn, along with right-hander Paul Skenes producing results below his super-human standards, have taken a toll.
The Bucs sit with a 63-66 record, 5 1/2 games behind the third NL Wild Card spot. They also need to pass four other teams in the standings.
The Miami Marlins had been enjoying a resurgence around the All-Star break, with ownership even proclaiming them as contenders who wouldn’t shop right-hander Sandy Alcantara at the trading deadline.
But since Aug. 1, the Marlins have gone from having a 20% chance to 4.6%. A four-game deficit isn’t insurmountable, but having to also pass the St. Louis Cardinals, D-backs and Padres makes the task exponentially harder.
The Arizona Diamondbacks had been among the NL Wild-Card leaders for weeks, but just hovering near .500 this month has caused a tumble from a 53.3% playoff probability to 37.2%.
The D-backs are just a game back of the Wild-Card pack, but the Chicago Cubs, Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres have clearly asserted themselves as leaders this month. And now that Arizona has put slugging second baseman Ketel Marte on the injured list because of knee pain after an awkward no-show on a road trip, the D-backs will be even more hamstrung to make a final surge.
On the American League side, the Baltimore Orioles can’t afford these mood swings for much longer. Currently on a four-game bender, the O’s have gone from having 23.3% chance at the start of August to 9.0%. Some of that could coincide with trading catcher Adley Rutschman at the deadline.
And worse than simply being two games behind the AL Wild-Card group, the O’s also would have to pass the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers and Minnesota Twins to reach the playoffs.
The only reason the Seattle Mariners have slightly better playoff odds than the Orioles is because they play in the morbid AL West — where nobody is over .500 and the top three teams all have a -46 run differential.
The Mariners overall postseason odds have fallen from 47.4% to 32.0% since Aug. 1, but they’d need to pass only the Rangers and first-place Houston Astros to win the division. The AL Wild Card has eight other contenders for three spots, so the Mariners three-game deficit in the standings is deceptively worse.
The M’s are four games behind in the West, and could really use a jolt from Cal Raleigh, who is slashing an impossibly weak .156/.273/.296 with 13 home runs.
Even at 62-66, the Guardians remain just a game back in the AL Wild Card, even if they’ve slipped 4 1/2 games behind the leading Chicago White Sox in the AL Central. But since Aug. 1, their overall postseason chances have dropped from 39.4% to 29.4%.
With the White Sox pegged at 50.9% to win the division (and Cleveland at 16.5%), the Guards’ best chance might be to hurdle three teams in the AL Wild-Card hunt. Having slugger José Ramírez back in the lineup after hamate surgery makes this possible, but still unlikely.
Reaching the bottom of the barrel in the NL, the Washington Nationals have gone from long shots at 4.2% on Aug. 1 to just about no shot at 0.2%. Plummeting even lower, the Cincinnati Reds fell 1.6% to 0.1%, and the New York Mets dropped from 0.3% to 0.1%.
So, yes, we’re saying there’s still a chance.
