James Talarico is praying the polls are right.
The 37-year-old Democrat is locked in a tight U.S. Senate race in Texas against Attorney General Ken Paxton, who toppled incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the GOP primary after a late boost from President Trump.
The race is largely a battle over who gets to define Mr. Talarico.
Republicans question his sexual orientation and label him “Talafreako,” “Tofu Talarico” and “Low T Talario.” They say he’s too far-left for Texas, having said things such as “God is nonbinary,” once called himself “a Christian who hates Christianity” and in a 2022 race said his campaign has “officially become a non-meat campaign”
Mr. Talarico, who has a girlfriend and is not a vegetarian, has walked back some of his past comments. He presents himself as a reasonable, personable candidate focused on kitchen-table issues.
He leans into his Christian faith, trying to present himself as an atypical Democrat and draw a sharp contrast with Mr. Paxton’s brick-fist political style and personal baggage, including a messy divorce.
That effort includes a recent ad featuring Mr. Talarico’s grandfather “Paw Paw,” a Baptist preacher in South Texas who, the candidate says, taught him to follow the two great commandments: “Love God and love your neighbor.”
As a teacher and state lawmaker, Mr. Talarico says he’s been fighting to provide “relief to those struggling to afford their healthcare, their housing, their groceries.”
Meanwhile, Mr. Paxton and Republicans say Mr. Talarico is out of step with Texas and wager voters can’t stomach supporting him — even if, like voters throughout the U.S., they’re frustrated with the high cost of living and the war in Iran.
A recent Emerson College poll shows the race in a dead heat: Mr. Paxton at 47% and Mr. Talarico at 46%, with 2% saying they would back someone else and 5% undecided.
Other surveys also show a close contest, though this election cycle has raised fresh doubts about how much weight anyone should put on polling.
Mr. Talarico’s competitive standing also could prove fleeting once the attack ads start in earnest, something Texas hasn’t yet seen at scale in this race.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said there appears to be a standoff between Mr. Trump and Senate GOP leaders over who will bankroll what could become the cycle’s biggest Senate investment.
“Someone’s going to have to pay for that,” Mr. Jones said, noting the sheer cost of running a statewide TV campaign in Texas.
While Mr. Paxton has had a turbulent tenure as attorney general, Texans reelected him twice despite a federal indictment for felony securities fraud (the charges were eventually dropped in a plea deal) and an FBI corruption probe (which, after his last reelection, led to his impeachment by the state House and acquittal in the state Senate).
Faced with the challenge of rehabilitating Mr. Paxton’s “damaged” image, Mr. Jones said Republicans will rely on a two-part strategy to tear down Mr. Talarico. It involves making the case that he is also a flawed person and — once the personal attacks have leveled the field — that voters should focus on policy.
“If Paxton is elected, he will promote conservative policies in terms of legislation and judicial appointments, whereas Talarico will promote progressive policies,” Mr. Jones said. “So I think the argument is to try to create an image of Talarico as somebody who also is a damaged person, just like Paxton, albeit in different ways.”
In a red state like Texas, that approach usually works.
But the fight over defining Mr. Talarico isn’t just about policy or personality. It also has drifted into the realm of faith — a space where Democrats often struggle.
Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, said Mr. Talarico’s faith functions less as a talking point and more as armor against a familiar Democratic vulnerability.
“For the most part, Talarico’s faith acts as a neutralizer to criticisms that Democrats often face, that they’re either insufficiently religious, if not hostile to religion,” Mr. Blank said. “Talarico cannot be painted as hostile to religion or to Christians in general without forcing a discussion over his particular faith.”
Mr. Blank said that armor cuts both ways, warning that Republicans risk alienating their own base by attacking Mr. Talarico’s brand of Christianity too aggressively, given how many conservative Christian voters already believe they face discrimination in public life.
“When Republicans are in the position of making fun of Talarico’s faith, they’re walking on a very dangerous path with respect to their own electorate,” Mr. Blank said.
