The Treasury Department is on course to borrow more than $2 trillion by the end of the fiscal year — up from $1.7 trillion last year.
The department’s Wednesday Quarterly Refunding Documents include estimates of needed borrowing over the next two quarters.
The Trump administration predicts a $2.1 trillion deficit for fiscal 2026. Market participants forecast a $2 trillion deficit. And the Office of Management and Budget sees a $2.06 trillion deficit.
All three surpass the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of $1.85 trillion.
As for next year, the CBO projects a deficit of $1.89 trillion.
With the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, the OMB is predicting that fiscal 2027’s deficit will hit $2.17 trillion. That translates to more than $166 billion in debt each month of the current fiscal year and $181 billion each month after.
The national debt is inching closer to $39 trillion.
It stands at $38.93 trillion, up roughly $20 billion since the department’s quarterly report was released.
Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, said in a statement, “$2 trillion deficits used to be unheard of, and then they only occurred during major recessions — it’s beyond scary that $2 trillion deficits are now the norm.”
She stressed the urgent need for deficit reduction.
“Markets will only tolerate our unsustainable borrowing for so long; the risk of a fiscal crisis gets higher as the days pass,” she said.
In response to the Center Square’s request for comment, the Treasury Department pointed to economic growth projections and a fraud elimination task force announced in March.
The Government Accountability Office has estimated that the federal government loses $233 billion to $521 billion annually to fraud, based on data for fiscal 2018 through 2022, a fragment of the projected $2 trillion deficit.
Before becoming treasury secretary, Scott Bessent advocated for a “3-3-3” plan, which included cutting the budget deficit to 3% of gross domestic product by 2028.
A $2 trillion deficit is roughly double the 3% target, which Ms. MacGuineas says means “things are getting worse, not better.”
A recent survey by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, which analyzes long-term fiscal challenges, found that 92% of voters are concerned that the national debt is driving up the cost of living.
Polling shows widespread agreement that addressing the debt should be a top-three priority for the president and Congress.
Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said fiscal confidence is the lowest it’s been in almost two years.
“The rising national debt has effectively become a kitchen table issue for Americans because it contributes to rising costs across the economy, from grocery bills to car payments,” he said in a statement. “Voters across party lines are looking for leadership and solutions on the debt, because they understand it’s a critical issue for the nation’s economy and their own personal finances.”
