The Mexican economy grew 1.5% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the previous three-month period, according to preliminary data, recovering from a 0.6% contraction in the first quarter of the year.
The quarter-over-quarter growth rate, reported by the national statistics agency INEGI on Thursday, was the best result for the Mexican economy since the final quarter of 2020.
INEGI also reported that Mexico’s economy grew 2.1% annually in the second quarter of 2026, up from a 0.4% year-over-year expansion in the first quarter.
Both the quarter-over-quarter and annual growth rates came in above the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Reuters.
On social media, Banco Base’s director of economic analysis, Gabriela Siller, wrote that it is “estimated that approximately two-thirds of the quarter-over-quarter growth was due to the World Cup effect, with the remainder the result of a rebound effect following the contraction in the first quarter.”
She said that the quarter-over-quarter GDP “boost” mainly came from the secondary sector, driven by spending on construction in April and May ahead of the World Cup, as well as the tertiary sector due to greater retail and services expenditure “associated with the event.”
Similarly, Andrés Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said that economic activity in Mexico in the second quarter “benefited from temporary supports, such as the boost the World Cup gave to tourism, retail trade and spending on entertainment.”
Mexico hosted 13 matches during this year’s FIFA men’s World Cup, 12 of which were played in June.
INEGI published preliminary data last week that showed that the Mexican economy grew 0.2% on a sequential basis in June and 1.7% annually.
All 3 sectors grew in Q2
INEGI’s latest data showed that the primary sector grew 3.3% in the second quarter compared to the previous three-month period and 7.3% on an annual basis.
The secondary sector expanded 1.6% on a quarter-over-quarter basis and 0.8% annually, while the tertiary sector grew 1.5% sequentially and 2.5% compared to the first quarter of 2025.
While the primary sector recorded the strongest growth, Siller pointed out that its contribution to GDP is not significant compared to the other two sectors.
“Although primary activities showed the greatest quarter-over-quarter growth, they represent very little of GDP,” she wrote on X on Thursday morning.
Mexico’s economy shrank in this year’s first quarter, but less than anticipated
“Of the 1.5% quarter-over-quarter growth, primary activities contributed 0.12 percentage points, while secondary activities contributed 0.49 pp and tertiary activities 0.90 pp,” Siller wrote.
The outlook for the Mexican economy
Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2026 growth forecast for Mexico to 1.2% from a previous prediction of 1.6%. Finance Minister Édgar Amador responded by expressing confidence that the economy will outperform the IMF projection. Indeed, the Finance Ministry is forecasting annual growth of between 1.8% and 2.8% this year.
While President Claudia Sheinbaum has predicted that economic activity will pick up in the second half of 2026 as new public and private investment projects commence, Siller anticipates a sequential contraction in the third quarter of the year.
The Banco Base analyst wrote on X that after the World Cup — Mexico hosted its final match on July 5 — “a downward correction in Mexico’s GDP is expected.”
“In other words, another [quarter-over-quarter] contraction,” Siller explained.
“This is because GDP measures the flow of goods and services produced in the country during a period, and production in the quarter following the World Cup will likely be lower in terms of construction, retail trade, and services, particularly services associated with the tourism sector and leisure activities.”
Una vez pasado el Mundial, se espera una corrección a la baja en el PIB de México, es decir, otra contracción.
Esto se debe a que el PIB mide el flujo de los bienes y servicios que se producen en el país durante un periodo, y la producción en el trimestre posterior al Mundial… pic.twitter.com/29gR6A6YNG
— Gabriela Siller Pagaza (@GabySillerP) July 30, 2026
In her post, Siller included a table showing pessimistic, central and optimistic forecasts for the third and fourth quarters, and 2026 as a whole. Her pessimistic forecast is that the Mexican economy will contract 1.2% on a sequential basis in the third quarter.
Abadia, the Pantheon Macroeconomics economist, asserted that the pace of growth recorded in the second quarter “won’t be sustainable,” while Goldman Sachs’ head of Latin American economics, Alberto Ramos, said that moving forward “it’s probable that [Mexican] households’ consumption of goods and services will continue facing obstacles derived from internal and external uncertainty and weak consumer confidence.”
With reports from El Economista and Reuters
