New data released by IATA indicates that the war in the Middle East has caused a 3.4% drop in global passenger demand in April 2026.
IATA’s data shows that:
- Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was down -3.4% compared to April 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand increased by 1.2%. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased -2.9% year-on-year. The load factor was 83.1% (-0.4 ppt compared to April 2025).
- International demand fell -5.3% compared to April 2025. Excluding Middle East, demand grew by 1.9%. Capacity was down -5.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9% (-0.2 ppt compared to April 2025).
- Domestic demand was flat compared to April 2025. Capacity increased 0.8% year-on-year. The load factor was 81.9% (-0.7 ppt compared to April 2025).
Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said that: “The 46.6% fall in demand for carriers in the Middle East due to war in the region was so acute that it dragged overall demand down -3.4%.”
Walsh continued: “The situation for air transport remains highly volatile. The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand.”
Broken down regionally, IATA’s data shows that international RPK fell -5.3%, with capacity falling -5.1%. However, this decline was caused by continuing heavy falls in demand for Middle East carriers.
Excluding the Middle East, RPK increased by 1.9%. North America was flat and all other regions reported growth.
Asia-Pacific airlines achieved a 3.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.7% year-on-year, and the load factor was 87.5% (+1.9 ppt compared to April 2025), a record high for April. There was a notable slowdown in traffic on the Japan-China corridor, due to ongoing political tensions.
European carriers saw a 0.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity increased 0.3% year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.9% (+0.6 ppt compared to April 2025). Direct traffic between Europe and Asia increased 15.3% as it replaced traffic transiting through the Middle East.
North American carriers saw a 0.0% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity decreased -1.1% year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.9% (+0.9 ppt compared to April 2025).
Middle Eastern carriers saw a -48.1% year-on-year decrease in demand. Capacity fell -38.4% year-on-year, and the load factor was 70.1% (-13.1 ppt compared to April 2025). Traffic was impacted by the ongoing Iran war, though the decline slowed a little compared to March, as an uneasy ceasefire came into effect.
Latin American airlines achieved an 8.9% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity climbed 7.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 84.6% (+1.4 ppt compared to April 2025).
African airlines saw a 2.2% year-on-year increase in demand. Capacity was up 1.2% year-on-year. The load factor was 77.9% (+0.7 ppt compared to April 2025).
Go to www.iata.org for more.
