This week’s Mailbag looks at possible extensions for Sandy Alcantara and Jac Caglianone, the Rangers’ longer-term outlook and what the Rockies can do with struggling shortstop Ezequiel Tovar and his long-term contract.
Let’s get into it!
Chris asks:
What might a Sandy Alcantara extension look like?
Not that long ago, I’d have started any question like this by saying a trade felt like the far likelier outcome than an extension. Now, after Miami has gone two deadlines and an offseason without moving Alcantara despite good value — all amid repeated reports that he’s (understandably) a personal favorite of owner Bruce Sherman — another long-term deal seems like something the organization will consider.
First, let’s take a quick look at Alcantara’s return from Tommy John surgery, which cost him the 2024 season. Last year’s results — particularly early on — were gruesome. Alcantara needed a 3.13 ERA over his final dozen starts just to get his season-long ERA “down” to 5.36. Early on, he wasn’t missing bats anywhere close to an average level. His command was well shy of its prior standards. He was more homer-prone than he’d ever been. Opponents were making quite a bit of hard contact. It wasn’t encouraging.
Late last July, Alcantara seemed to turn a corner. His command sharpened, and his strikeout rate improved. He was still giving up too much hard contact, but that was more manageable with a league-average strikeout rate and plus walk rate than it was earlier in the season, when he’d been fanning 17% of his opponents with a walk rate around 12%. Alcantara didn’t have a dominant finish, but those 12 starts were a portent for better days ahead.
That’s precisely what’s come to pass. Alcantara has a 3.52 ERA this season and leads the majors in innings pitched. His strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates are all worse than their peak levels but are vastly improved over their 2025 levels. Alcantara is on an absolute heater right now, with seven straight quality starts — including three straight scoreless outings (a total of 20 innings). He’s sitting on a 1.88 ERA with a 23.4% strikeout rate, 5.3% walk rate and 42% grounder rate over his past 48 innings. It’s ace-level performance.
Skeptics can say it’s “only seven starts,” but if we go back to last July’s turnaround, Alcantara boasts 241 1/3 innings (37 starts) with a 3.39 ERA, 20.1% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.8% ground-ball rate. Opponents are averaging 89.2 mph off the bat with a 39% hard-hit rate. It’s average quality of contact that plays down because Alcantara does a good job avoiding barrels and gets plenty of chase on balls off the plate.
Even if Alcantara is more of a No. 2 starter than a Cy Young candidate moving forward, he’s a workhorse who any club in the game would be happy to start in a playoff setting. The Marlins have him signed through next year by way of a $21MM club option that’ll be a no-brainer to exercise. He’s said he hopes to spend his career in Miami, and if the team’s repeated decisions to pass on trading him are any indication, Sherman is amenable to that concept. The offseason will be an ideal time to extend him, so as not to have his expiring contract casting a cloud over the entire season. Let’s jump into MLBTR’s Contract Tracker to pull up some age-related comps and see where such a deal might land.
Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription
- Access weekly subscriber-only articles by Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, and Anthony Franco.
- Join exclusive weekly live chats with Anthony.
- Remove ads and support our writers.
- Access GM-caliber tools like our MLB Contract Tracker
