The Reds plan to activate Hunter Greene for his season debut during their upcoming weekend series against the Orioles, manager Terry Francona told reporters (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer). They’ll also get closer Emilio Pagán back from the 15-day injured list for tomorrow’s game versus Milwaukee.
Greene underwent arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow during Spring Training. The Reds announced they were hoping he’d return at some point in July. That’ll be the case, as he’s back at the earlier end of that initial timetable.
Cincinnati’s ace took four turns on a minor league assignment, building to 6 1/3 innings and 82 pitches against Minnesota’s Triple-A affiliate yesterday. Greene didn’t allow a run while recording a 13:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 14 1/3 frames on the rehab stint. He averaged 98.6 mph on his fastball in his pair of Triple-A appearances.
Greene was a first-time All-Star and top 10 finisher in Cy Young balloting two seasons ago. He battled a right groin injury for a couple months last year but pitched just as well when healthy. Between 2024-25, he turned in a 2.76 earned run average and 29.2% strikeout rate across 45 starts. He was sixth in run prevention and 10th in strikeout rate among pitchers with at least 200 innings over that stretch.
The Reds initially seemed to weather the absence of their ace, racing to one of the hottest starts in MLB. They were 20-11 at the end of April. They’ve been one of the worst teams in the league since then, above only the Rockies with a 17-33 record dating back to May 1. The starting pitching hasn’t necessarily been the biggest problem — the bullpen has been the worst in baseball during that stretch — but they’ve certainly felt Greene’s loss.
Cincinnati starters are 17th in ERA and have the third-highest home run rate in the last two months. Chase Burns has been fantastic, emerging as a legitimate top-of-the-rotation complement to Greene. Andrew Abbott and Rhett Lowder have managed decent ERAs lately but are struggling to keep the ball in the park. Brady Singer had an awful first two months. He looks to have gotten back on track in June but had a tough outing in Pittsburgh yesterday. Nick Lodolo, who missed the first month with a blister issue, has a 5.05 ERA across 10 starts.
The question is whether Greene’s return comes in time to help salvage the season. Cincinnati lost again tonight and faces a likely insurmountable 12.5 game deficit in the division. They’re only five games out of a Wild Card spot but need to surpass six teams along the way. Only the Rockies, Mets and Giants have a worse record in the National League.
Francona didn’t say whether the Reds would go to a six-man rotation. They planned to do that to begin the season until Lodolo’s injury at the end of Spring Training. That said, they’d presumably prefer to give the ball to Greene and Burns as often as possible with their playoff hopes slipping away. They’ll also have an off day next Monday and the All-Star Break after that, so they should have everyone fairly well rested.
Lowder or Lodolo would seem the likeliest candidates to be pushed to the bullpen based on recent form. The rotation picture would probably sort itself out by the trade deadline if the Reds don’t have a great showing in July.
Singer is an impending free agent who is highly unlikely to receive a qualifying offer. He wouldn’t have immense trade value on a $12.75MM salary but has pitched well enough lately that the Reds would probably find someone willing to give up a mid-level prospect (as the Cubs did last week to acquire David Peterson). Lodolo will be due at least a marginal raise on his $4.725MM salary for his final arbitration year. Given his recent form and blister history, the Reds could look to move him as well. It’s less likely they’d trade Abbott, and a move involving Greene or Burns would be an absolute stunner.
Greene is on the 60-day injured list and will need to be reinstated onto the 40-man roster. They already have an opening and would only need to open an active roster spot unless they make an intervening 40-man move. Tony Santillan will be down for an extended time after suffering a significant oblique strain and would be a 60-day IL candidate if they did need the roster spot.
The Reds will also need to option out a pitcher tomorrow to make room for Pagán in the bullpen. Francona has already stated he’ll slot back in as closer after a nearly two-month absence with a left hamstring strain. Pagán had struggled before the injury, giving up 10 runs while blowing three saves in nine chances over 14 innings. Santillan recorded four saves after the Pagán injury; no one else has more than one in that time. Pagán’s propensity for home runs makes him a riskier closer than most, but the Reds can at least feel confident he’ll be around the strike zone. That’s not the case for most of a bullpen that has MLB’s highest walk rate.
