It’s no secret that the Republican vote continues to grow in the progressive state of California, and that boost has become visible in a tight race where the Republicans hope to reclaim the governorship, held by Democrats since 2011. Steve Hilton, a political commentator who enjoys the backing of U.S. President Donald Trump, has led or is in contention for the lead in several recent polls, a surprising scenario that would not only put the Democratic Party in a difficult position but also call into question the results and the momentum of outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, who has been tipped as a contender for the White House.
Reviving a battered economy in a state where the cost of living has steadily climbed and strengthening public safety with the support of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations are, broadly speaking, the cornerstones of the proposals from Hilton and Sheriff Chad Bianco, another Republican hopeful. Their campaigns blend conservative positions while aligning with Trump’s agenda, such as expanding deportations and tightening immigration enforcement.
In the polls, Hilton remains in the lead. He is polling at 18%, according to SurveyUSA. Although this poll places him in second position, several others have ranked him as the favorite. For example, at the end of April, he was polling at 16%, according to a survey conducted by CBS and YouGov.
Bianco, for his part, has lost some ground, but remains in the race: he has been vying for second place in recent polls. These results, with just under a month to go before the June 2 primaries, are crucial, since the Californian electoral system, known as a “jungle primary,” does not distinguish between political parties on the ballot: the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of whether they are from the same party, advance to the midterm election on November 3.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Democratic electorate is undecided among a broad field of candidates, including businessman and philanthropist Tom Steyer, former U.S. secretary of health and human services Xavier Becerra, former Congresswoman Katie Porter, and former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. The race was upturned when Eric Swalwell, who had been leading in the polls, withdrew from the campaign and resigned his congressional seat amid serious allegations of sexual misconduct.
“Many people have talked about the possibility of two Republicans being in the runoff. I think it’s a much higher probability that there’ll be two Democrats in the runoff, and that is why the Republican Party and Donald Trump have decided to get engaged and make sure that Hilton makes the runoff,” says Fernando Guerra, professor and director of the Los Angeles Studies Center at Loyola Marymount University. “What could happen is that many Republicans at the national level begin to donate to Hilton because they want to make sure that there’s a Republican on the ballot in November.”
That influx of donations and Trump’s endorsements are what could sustain Hilton until the end of the race. Since the jungle primary system was implemented in 2012, two Democrats have not yet faced each other in the general election for governor. Newsom competed in the general election against two Republicans: John H. Cox (2018) and Brian Dahle (2022). He won both races by wide, double-digit margins.
The political consequences of an overly anti‑immigrant stance
Steve Hilton was born in England in 1969, studied at Oxford University, and began his career in British politics, affiliated with the Conservative Party during Margaret Thatcher’s era. In 2012, he moved to California and started a career as a presenter and political commentator for Fox News. His plan is, in his own way, to repeat the feat of the immigrant who became governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger. Since the movie star completed his second term in January 2011, no other Republican has been governor of California.
Since then, California has solidified into a Democratic stronghold, with a large majority in the state legislature and also in voter registration. That’s why the popularity of Hilton — with well-attended events and steady fundraising — represents a striking turnaround.
“There is a majority in favor of change in California,” Hilton declared at a recent campaign event in the coastal city of Huntington Beach. His proposals to win over voters include creating incentives to retain Hollywood in Los Angeles and the tech industry in Silicon Valley; reducing various taxes (such as exempting those earning up to $100,000 annually from state taxes); and streamlining the process for building affordable housing. He is also aligned with positions favoring a stricter immigration policy and claims that “everyone” supports Trump’s plan for the mass deportation of undocumented immigrants.
Chad Bianco, for his part, is considered the enforcer of Trump’s MAGA movement. One of his law enforcement actions that brought his campaign into the spotlight was ordering the seizure of ballots as part of an investigation into alleged fraud, a decision that quickly generated controversy. The measure was interpreted as a way to capitalize on narratives promoted by Republican sectors that maintain, without presenting evidence, that their political rivals benefit from irregularities to gain votes.
The police chief has said that, if elected, one of his first actions would be to repeal SB 54, a law he believes has protected undocumented immigrants. This law limits cooperation between local law enforcement and ICE. It prohibits the use of public resources to assist in deportations, the detention of individuals solely on ICE immigration warrants, and the transfer of individuals to ICE custody without certain legal conditions. Speaking to the press, Bianco stated that SB 54 “was only designed to protect criminals in jail from being deported.” He also opposes any initiative that would restrict the actions of immigration enforcement.
Professor Fernando Guerra says he hasn’t seen Republican candidates in California with anti-immigrant stances since Pete Wilson, campaigning for reelection as governor, pushed through the controversial Proposition 187 in 1994, which restricted undocumented immigrants’ access to public services like education and healthcare. Proposition 187 passed the ballot, but federal courts blocked it, and it never went into effect. Wilson won that election after using Proposition 187 as a central theme in his campaign.
Some believe that this marked the beginning of the Republican Party’s decline in California. The struggle to overturn this initiative gave rise to prominent Hispanic politicians, such as current gubernatorial candidates Xavier Becerra and Antonio Villaraigosa, as well as Senator Alex Padilla.
“Even though Pete Wilson recognized at the time that being anti-immigrant might have long-term negative effects, he thought it would have short-term gain, and it did,” says Guerra. According to the expert, Hilton and Bianco “are trying to mobilize the anti-immigrant vote within the Republican Party,” and although “they won’t admit to this,” “they know that makes them unlikely to win in the general election.”
The MAGA side of California
For over three decades, California has been the political laboratory of U.S. progressivism: a Democratic stronghold where Republican presidential candidates aim mainly to collect multimillion‑dollar donations, and where that party’s gubernatorial contenders often seem to be competing more to limit their losses than to win power.
But interestingly, California was the state that cast the third‑highest number of votes for Trump in 2024 — six million ballots — behind only Texas and Florida. That 38% of the total votes counted in favor of the tycoon was not enough to turn the state red. Even so, changes are taking place on terrain that has long been hostile to the party.
Trump improved his result in 2024 compared to the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden. Just over a year ago, the Republican wrested several counties from Kamala Harris that Biden had won, including Riverside, San Bernardino, Fresno, Merced, and San Joaquin. With those victories, he turned half of California red.
Administrative data and studies point to a real phenomenon occurring in recent years: the number of Republican voters in California is growing. Statistics from the Secretary of State’s office show a notable shift between 2024 and 2025, with 289,000 new Republican registrations, compared with 88,000 new Democrats — a growth rate three times faster for the Republican Party over that period.
Adding to this is the recent arrival of the conservative outlet The California Post, part of the New York Post, which has introduced a headline style unusual in Los Angeles’s media ecosystem — even compared with the local FOX affiliate, sometimes described as more moderate than the national network’s rhetoric. The California Post has repeatedly adopted the label “socialist” as a critical descriptor of Democratic leaders. It is not the only organization turning its attention to the state. The conservative New York–based think tank The Manhattan Institute also plans to open offices in California.
Professor Guerra sees it as “a business strategy” based on an undeniable reality: “There are many Republicans in California.” “These are people who are willing to consume Republican right-wing media. And that is a money maker for them, and they can rail against Democrats.”
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