The idea sounds like something out of a science fiction movie: thousands of satellites orbiting Earth, space-based sensors tracking missiles in real time, and weapons capable of destroying threats just seconds after launch. But behind the spectacular “Golden Dome” project promoted by President Donald Trump are serious doubts about its feasibility.
A new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has estimated that the system could cost up to $1.2 trillion over two decades — a figure nearly seven times higher than the $175 billion Trump initially promised. And even with that monumental expense, experts warn that the shield might not stop a massive attack from Russia or China.
The actual cost
Trump presented the “Golden Dome” as a revolutionary defense system capable of protecting the United States from advanced aerial threats, including ballistic, hypersonic, and cruise missiles. The project was launched via an executive order signed during the first week of his second term.
At the time, the president assured that the system would be fully operational before the end of his term in January 2029. He also stated that the total cost would be around $175 billion.
However, the new CBO report paints a much more costly picture of the project. The nonpartisan agency estimated that developing, deploying, and operating the system over 20 years could drive costs up to $1.2 trillion. Acquisition costs alone would exceed $1 trillion.
The CBO itself clarified that the estimate does not represent a definitive government design, as the Pentagon has not yet detailed exactly how the system will function or how many components it will include. The report notes that this is “one illustrative approach rather than an estimate of a specific Administration proposal.”
A space shield inspired by Israel
The “Golden Dome” concept is partly inspired by Israel’s “Iron Dome,” the well-known multi-layered system that intercepts rockets and short-range missiles launched from Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran.
However, while Israel protects a relatively small territory against regional threats, Trump’s project aims to cover the entire continental United States, as well as Alaska and Hawaii, against far more sophisticated weapons.
The proposed architecture includes ground-based and space-based capabilities to detect, track, and intercept missiles at various stages of flight. A significant portion of the cost would come precisely from that space-based component.
According to the CBO, about 70% of the acquisition cost would go toward space-based interceptors and a constellation of approximately 7,800 satellites. An orbital system needed to destroy just ten incoming ballistic missiles alone would cost nearly $720 billion.
Trump justified the plan by arguing that strategic threats have evolved dangerously over the past few decades. In his executive order, he stated: “Over the past 40 years, rather than lessening, the threat from next-generation strategic weapons has become more intense and complex.”
Doubts about its effectiveness
Beyond the cost, the report also raised doubts about the system’s true capabilities. The CBO concluded that the “Golden Dome” could effectively respond to a limited attack by countries with lesser capabilities, such as North Korea. But the picture changes when facing military powers comparable to the United States.
The analysis warns that the system “could be overwhelmed by a full-scale attack mounted by a peer or near-peer adversary,” referring to countries such as Russia or China. In other words, even with a multibillion-dollar investment, the shield could become overwhelmed by a massive missile launch.
That possibility fuels the skepticism that already existed among military experts and lawmakers regarding the technical feasibility of the project. Several officials have warned that current U.S. missile defense systems have failed to keep pace with new technologies developed by potential adversaries, especially in the field of hypersonic missiles.
There are also doubts about the timeline. Trump said he wanted to see the system operational before the end of his term, but experts consider it extremely difficult to build an infrastructure of that magnitude in less than four years.
The political debate and multimillion-dollar contracts
Despite criticism, the government has already begun allocating resources to the project. Congress previously approved approximately $24 billion for initiatives related to the “Golden Dome,” while the Pentagon requested an additional $17 billion in future budget allocations.
In addition, companies in the defense and aerospace sectors have already secured major contracts. SpaceX and Lockheed Martin received contracts worth up to $3.2 billion to develop prototypes of space interceptors.
General Michael Guetlein, the project’s director, recently defended the initiative before lawmakers and dismissed the most alarmist estimates. As he explained, many external estimates simply take the cost of previous systems and multiply it. “That is not what Golden Dome is doing,” the general stated. “We are laser-focused on affordability.”
However, even he acknowledged that the space component poses enormous financial risks. During a hearing last month, he warned that if the space interceptors cannot be produced at a reasonable cost, they will not go into production.
Meanwhile, Democratic critics argue that the program could turn into a massive windfall for military contractors. Senator Jeff Merkley, who requested the CBO report, called the bill “nothing more than a massive giveaway to defense contractors paid for entirely by working Americans.”
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