Trade Deadline Outlook: San Diego Padres

The Padres might have the widest range of outcomes this deadline. They have the sport’s most unpredictable baseball operations leader. They’re expected to officially get new ownership a few weeks after August 3, potentially expanding their payroll capabilities. It’s a top-heavy roster with a couple high-impact trade chips, a bunch of bloated contracts, and a clear need for controllable starting pitching. The only shocking outcome would be if they don’t do anything at all.

San Diego started strong despite a punchless offense and a lack of depth in an injury-riddled rotation. They rode an excellent bullpen to a 19-11 start through the end of April. A four-game win streak in the middle of May pushed them a season-high 11 games above .500 at 29-18, briefly moving them ahead of the Dodgers in the NL West.

They’ve crashed to earth since then. Only the A’s have a worse record than San Diego’s 22-35 mark since May 19. They’ve dropped five of eight since the All-Star Break. While the Padres’ star hitters have gotten hot after dramatically underwhelming starts, San Diego’s pitching has now completely crumbled. Not only has the rotation been overmatched — which was inevitable given the personnel — but a handful of injuries and a heavily worked middle relief group have undercut the bullpen’s effectiveness.

The Padres are the toughest team to beat if they’re holding a lead in the ninth inning. They just can’t get there consistently enough. The division hopes are long gone and they’ve dropped four games back in the Wild Card picture. That’s not an insurmountable gap, but they have five teams to jump with half a major league pitching staff.

It’s not likely to happen internally even if they get some injury reinforcements down the stretch. They’ll need to acquire starting pitching, which probably requires trading off the MLB roster. The Padres have one top prospect, Double-A catcher Ethan Salas. No one else from their system lands among the game’s best minor league talents at Baseball America, FanGraphs or The Athletic. There’s very little farm depth. BA ranked the San Diego system the weakest in the majors shortly before this month’s amateur draft.

The Padres either need to actively sell or walk a thin buy/sell line that involves trading off the MLB roster for help in other areas. In either case, they should have plenty of conversations on a few impact trade chips.

Record: 51-53 (9.2% playoff odds, per FanGraphs)

(For other entries in this series, check out this post.)

Sell Mode

Potential Impending Free Agents: Adrian Morejon, Michael King (opt-out), Ty France, Jason Adam, Walker Buehler, Yuki Matsui (opt-out), Wandy Peralta (opt-out), Miguel Andujar, Luis Rengifo, Griffin Canning, Germán Márquez, Lucas Giolito, Kyle Hart (club option), Ramón Laureano

Note: If Nick Pivetta doesn’t return from the injured list by August 22, the remaining two years and $32MM on his contract — both of which are player options — would convert to a $14MM club option.

Controllable Trade Candidates: Mason Miller, Jeremiah Estrada, Bradgley Rodriguez, Gavin Sheets, Luis Campusano

We’ve focused most of our attention throughout the deadline series on impending free agents. Those players are the most likely to move when a team falls out of contention. We’ll make an exception in the Padres’ case, as their deadline hinges so much around whether to shop Mason Miller.

San Diego has three and a half seasons of arbitration control over baseball’s best closer. They’re one year removed from surrendering Leo De Vries (one of the five best prospects in the sport) to acquire him. Miller is on track for one of the greatest reliever seasons in history, going 26-26 in save chances with a 0.84 ERA while striking out almost half his opponents. The Padres would only move him for a monster return, almost certainly a bigger prospect package than any other player will net this deadline season. He’s their best opportunity to land a controllable starter for a rotation that has zero trustworthy arms locked into the 2027 staff.