And now there are four. The Stanley Cup will be won by the Colorado Avalanche, Vegas Golden Knights, Carolina Hurricanes or Montreal Canadiens.
The biggest surprise of the four is the Canadiens who have accelerated their rebuild beyond even management’s wildest dreams.
To keep the surprises coming, the Canadiens would have to upset the heavily favoured Hurricanes. One team played the maximum 14 games in the first two rounds; the other played the minimum eight games.
In game one, the Canadiens put on a clinic, at times, posting a 6-2 win.
Wilde Horses
Extremely early, it was clear that the Canadiens would be able to produce offence. At the one minute mark, it was Cole Caufield coming out of the corner, and he showed the finish that we all know that he has. Caufield roofed his shot beautifully.
In the next two minutes, the Canadiens could have had two more goals. Zachary Bolduc was sent in on a breakaway, but he didn’t put in a good deke. Caufield set up Jake Evans with an empty net back-door, and he flat out missed his shot. It was a sure-fire goal not scored.
On minute later, another amazing chance as Josh Anderson sent in Phillip Danault on a breakaway. He did convert with an excellent shot to the far corner. The Canadiens had another beautiful chance a minute later. They could have had five goals in the first five minutes.
The Hurricanes defence which is so steady usually was getting dismantled early. The Canadiens took a couple minutes off from having a high danger scoring chance, but then only a minute later, they scored yet again. Danault with a superb pass to Alexandre Texier. He one-timed it far side against a shell-shocked Frederik Anderson.
Only three minutes later, the Canadiens added a fourth goal. What sticks out is the efficiency of the goal. The Canadiens turned it from behind their own net to in Carolina’s net in eight seconds.
The Hurricanes dumped it in. Jayden Struble took the first touch three feet to Lane Hutson. He fed it quickly to Evans who fed it to the Carolina blue line to Newhook who freed Ivan Demidov for a breakaway. He used his trademark forehand feint to perfection.
Montreal had a four goal first period in the books. The Hurricanes gave up five goals in the Ottawa series and five goals against in the Philadelphia series. The Canadiens were making their next pass while the Hurricanes were reacting to the last one. They were not keeping up to the speed of Montreal’s transition.
That’s bizarre because speed is what they are known for, and in the first period, the Hurricanes didn’t have enough of it. Also, the contrast to the physicality in the Buffalo series was noteworthy. Carolina doesn’t make a player pay on the forecheck. This could prove to be a Montreal advantage considering the Canadiens aren’t the most physical team themselves.
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In the third period, the Canadiens scored a fifth to equal what the Hurricanes gave up in each of their first two series. It was a stunner of a goal. Caufield to Juraj Slafkovsky. He had a one-on-one, but he recognized who it was against. It was forward Andrei Svechnikov, and he undressed him, then snapped it home against Andersen.
Slafkovsky added an empty netter which also included a third point for Suzuki. The Hurricanes got one shot on net in the third period.
The advanced stats produced one extremely important marker in game one. It’s been a challenge for the Suzuki line facing some of the best players in the game, especially the Kucherov line in the first series. They finally went to work in this game and showed their regular season dominance. The Suzuki line had an 82 per cent Expected Goals share.
The Canadiens defending was impressive in the third period. Heading into the final frame, the high danger chances were 11-11. Carolina didn’t get a high danger chance in the entire final frame.
Goaltending also told a major story. Andersen had been the best goalie seen in a long time halfway through the playoffs with a .950 save percentage for the first eight games. In game nine, number one versus the Canadiens, Andersen was an abysmal .762. Andersen’s Goals Saved Above Expected was a negative 3.09.
Wilde Goats
When the Hurricanes swarmed in the first minute and scored on a Seth Jarvis shot, it looked like it was going to be difficult. However, the Canadiens have shown this playoff that if you’re feeling down about it all, wait two minutes.
In the second period, it appeared that the Canadiens could have put the entire thing in the books early when Cole Caufield hit the post on a clear chance; instead, it was Eric Robinson with a breakaway of his own, putting it off the crossbar and in. One inch either way, and it was 4-2, not 5-1.
Wilde Cards
One of the unusual misconceptions of the series with the Sabres is that the Canadiens were vastly outplayed, and were lucky to win.
Statistically, the Expected Goals share favoured the Sabres at 53 to 47 percent. While that is a positive margin for Buffalo, how they created that advantage was in the aggression they showed in the offensive zone to keep possession. Historically, that aggression does work for more shot share, but aggression also leaves a team vulnerable to the counter-attack.
Take the deciding game as a case in point: the Sabres had a shot share advantage with that aggressive posture and it did lead to the Canadiens defending more, but that counter-attack was remarkably powerful. Imagine how the hockey world would perceive the final game, if the Canadiens scored on the breakaways earned by the Sabres being so aggressive.
Alexandre Texier had a breakaway. Josh Anderson had two breakaways. If the Canadiens scored on their breakaway advantage in the game, the final would have been 5-2 Montreal.
Another statistic often used to decide a true metric that is more valuable than simply which team fired more shots is high danger scoring chances. In the Sabres series, Buffalo had an 83 to 73 advantage. This is a scoring chance per game. This is negligible.
The Canadiens weren’t outplayed. They played a different style. It was an even series.
Only one metric stands out as lopsided and that was goaltending. Jakub Dobes had a Goals Saved Above Expected of 6.7. He stole seven goals from the Sabres.
Meanwhile, the Sabres goaltenders GSAE was negative 1.9. It’s not as if the Sabres goalies were horrendous. For the second straight series, Dobes was a difference maker. Dobes entered the conference finals as the second best GSAE in the playoffs, and that one goalie who has been better is Frederik Andersen of the Hurricanes.
It would be predictable that one of these goalies will crack in this round. Perhaps, the league expects it to be the rookie. However, take note of the career of Andersen. He is 36 years of age and this is the best he has ever played. He’s been a wildly inconsistent goaltender from year to year and even week to week.
For example, Andersen was a poor goalie this season. In the regular campaign his save percentage was only .875. This is a poor number. How he has transformed into a .950 in the playoffs is quite the shock. Historically, he doesn’t stay amazing.
The Canadiens have better offensive firepower than who the Hurricanes have faced so far. If the Canadiens win this series, it will be because magic Andersen turned into the back of his hockey card.
Brian Wilde, a Montreal-based sports writer, brings you on after each Canadiens game.
